To most readers, that's horribly obvious, but I keep seeing people on boards and elsewhere saying things like this:
Whatever the spread tomorrow take UNC. Clemson has never won at the Dean Dome.
Now, to be fair, the guy who posted this as a comment on another blog last night lists his occupation in his profile as "Professonal High-Fiver" and the number one film on his list of favorite movies is "Dumb and Dumber." But, still, even if you're not very smart, I don't understand why this is such a complicated idea to wrap your brain around:
1. The fact that the players who were on the Clemson squad 2 years ago, or 5 years ago, or 20 years ago, didn't beat the players who were on the UNC team in Chapel Hill those years has absolutely nothing to do with what is going to happen when THIS YEAR'S Clemson players compete vs. THIS YEAR'S UNC players.
2. Even if the fact that the Tigers haven't won in Chapel Hill makes it unlikely that they will win there tonight (it has nothing to do with it, but follow me here), that is a completely different question from whether or not they will lose by more than 14 points tonight. According to the quote above, it doesn't make any difference what the spread is - because UNC always beats Clemson at home, that somehow means they will always beat them by an unexpectedly large margin. Does that make any sense at all? Last year's game in Chapel Hill ended regulation in a tie and went to overtime. Does that make you feel like the Heels will always beat ANY spread? Ridiculous.
It doesn't even look like Clemson is a pick tonight at this moment, but I just needed to get that off my chest, because I see this twisted thinking all the time. E.g. Team A has lost their last 7 road games, so they won't cover a 12-point spread in their next road game. Huh? Even if they do lose straight-up again, that doesn't mean they will lose by 13, for Christ's sake! OK, I'm done. Picks later.
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