Picking Cotton

A lot of things to get done today, so getting this one in now. Of course, if other recent bowl picks are any indication, this line will jump 2 points before kickoff, but so be it. In the Cotton Bowl:

Ole Miss +4 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

A whopping 76% of the wagerline folks and 72% according to Sports Insights on the Red Raiders, yet the line has dropped considerably from the opener of -6.5. Statistically, the Rebels are better in all phases except for the ridiculous passing numbers for Texas Tech.

I don't have pages of data to back this up, but I've always felt like when you have an extremely one-dimensional team, a good coaching staff can generate a successful game plan against them if given the time (like the 5 weeks since Mississippi's last game). In an admittedly small sample size (don't be too harsh, Vegas Watch), and certainly the players weren't all the same (but Graham Harrell was there), teams have had some success in these situations against Texas Tech the past couple of years:

12/29/06: In Tech's bowl game vs. Minnesota, Tech was an 8-point favorite but had to mount a furious comeback, scoring 24 points in the 4th quarter to tie the game, eventually winning by 3 in overtime.

1/1/08: In Tech's bowl game vs. Virginia, Tech was favored by 6.5 points, and again had to come back in the 4th quarter, scoring 17 points in the 4th to win by 3 points.

11/22/08: Following Oklahoma's bye week (an extra week to prepare), Tech is a 7 point underdog, and gets destroyed by the Sooners 65-21.

It should be noted that in all these games, Graham Harrell put up ridiculous numbers (407 yds & 3 TD vs. UVA, 445 yds & 2 TD vs. Minn, 361 yds & 3 TD vs. Okla.) and they still struggled. It feels like in the NBA where a team playing the Cavs or Lakers just resigns themselves to the fact that LeBron or Kobe is going to get his 30 points, but knows that they can still win if they exploit their matchup advantages elsewhere.

Again, this pick is really based on the betting and line movement as usual, with the rest tossed in because I found it interesting. Barring an outbreak of flesh-eating virus or Africanized killer bees in the Utes locker room, we'll be playing Utah tonight also, but we haven't decided on the amount yet.