Sunday Afternoon Basketball

Five college hoops picks for Sunday. Putting them all in now, so I don't have to kick myself for forgetting to go back and put them in later (like Washington yesterday, dammit):

Vanderbilt +1 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

People out there seem to like this Florida team a lot more than I do. I guess recent back-to-back national championships can do that.

Marshall +7 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units

70% on Central Florida, line not budging. Same old story, nothing interesting here.

Toledo +5 -114, 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Now, there is something interesting here. 73% on Ball State, line down to 4.5 at many books. Pomeroy's system has Ball State winning by 5 points, but his system is based on win/loss margins up to this point in the season (with strength of opponent factored in). However, Ball State's best player, Anthony Newell, averaging 15 points and 9 rebounds per game (both #1 on the team), went down with an injury two weeks ago, and this is NOT factored in to Pomeroy's system, which is based on how well the team did in all the games, including those in which Newell played (which is almost all of them since he just played his last game on 1/10/09). So, since there have only been 3 games that Newell has missed, the system appears to predict that Ball State would win this game by 5 points, if Newell were in the lineup, but he's not, which should be worth at least a couple of points considering how productive he was. That makes so much sense to me, I must be getting it wrong.

Ohio State +3 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Hmmmm. The #7 team in the country only a 3-point favorite against an unranked team? Not buying it.

West Virginia pick -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Go back to the Ohio State explanation, but replace "#7 team" with "#4 team" and replace "only a 3-point favorite" with "an underdog at most books" and there you have it. I was surprised that the pick'em line was available at WSEX and not at Matchbook. Pays to shop around.

Nothing looks good in the NBA right now, but there are a few lines that just came out this morning, so we'll see. Also, as mentioned this morning, I'm still considering hitching my wagon to James Blake's star tonight. Maybe I'm still a little delusional from my recent illness. Good luck everybody.