Probably too many picks for one tipoff time, but can't narrow them down any further:
William & Mary +3.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
68% of wagerline on ODU, line went the other way. It's not rocket science. Teams are about equal, but Bill & Mary playing at home.
Notre Dame -2.5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Don't play it because it's on TV. Play it because Notre Dame is the better team, playing at home, and the books have moved the line from Notre Dame -1 to -3 or -3.5 at most books.
Kent State +8 -111, 1.11 units to win 1 unit
Tyree Evans has begun playing after sitting out the first semester. After just a few games, he's averaging 16.5 points per game and 54% on 3-pointers. Not a bad mid-season pickup. Also, of course, you've got public support for Temple and the line going the other way.
James Madison -4 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Two favorites in one night? As crazy as that sounds, there are four more under consideration for later (SMU, SJ St., Tenn-Martin, Morehead St.). What the hell is going on around here? In my expert estimation, JMU is head and shoulders better than Drexel. The books aren't taking a stand with Drexel either, as that line just keeps growing and growing. That makes me think there isn't a lot of sharp money on the Dragons tonight.
That's enough for now. Maybe back to play another couple tonight, we'll see. No NBA that we like, and our inner square is so far preventing us from pulling the trigger on Ohio State (I mean, if they could just pass the ball a little bit....). Good luck everybody.
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8 comments:
Why/how is Notre Dame the better team?
One word:
Harangody....
Jackson > Wright
McAlarney > Sapp
Ayers = Freeman
Hillesland < Summers
Harangody > Monroe (by a lot)
Statistically this season (small sample size) pretty close, with the Irish better on 3-pointers and G-Town better on free throws, but I didn't go back and break down every game for strength of opponent, etc.
"Statistically this season (small sample size) pretty close"
Even after last night, this just isnt' true. They both have good offenses. One team plays defense, the other doesn't. Not to be a dick, but I think that looking at this would be a lot more beneficial than comparing each individual player.
Do you think there's that much value in Pomeroy at this stage in the game? Certainly it has some value (for example, while I don't think West Virginia is anywhere near a top team, they are certainly worth a look when the get into conference play against the more hyped Big East powers). But I don't know how much value they have before conference play begins in earnest.
Another, the broader critique I have of Pomeroy is that there's something in his formula that seems to consistently overvalue slow-tempo teams. He consistently has Wisconsin ranked way too high in my opinion, and last year the system gave far too much love to Washington State. This would obviously be relevant in considering his rankings for Notre Dame vs. Georgetown.
It seems that virtually all of Pomeroy's disagreements with "conventional wisdom" come down to the public/polls overvaluing up-tempo teams or undervaluing deliberate teams. It can't simply be a flaw in public perception if slow-tempo teams consistently underperform his rankings, at least based on my admittedly anecdotal review of the past couple years' final numbers.
Thoughts? I of course love Pomeroy for the same reason I love DVOA and PECOTA and all the other stuff that gives knowledgeable people an edge, but I have some concerns.
I mean Duke plays at a pretty fast pace, and Pomeroy ended up being too high on them last year. It's not really hard to come up with examples like that. There are a lot of teams.
I'm just saying that looking at their Pomeroy stats is a lot more efficient/useful than comparing how they did on twos, threes, and FTs.
Actually, all I've noticed is that it always seems like there's a couple of slow-tempo teams that get too much love. I'm not sure it works in reverse, I haven't noticed it. But his overvaluation of Wisconsin, for example, is an annual tradition at this point, and there's always a couple more. Washington State was the most obvious example last year.
I think the reason I've always worried about that is because there's at least one hypothetical explanation I've come up with for the trend I've noticed. It makes sense that deliberate teams that play high-pressure defense would rack up huge efficiency numbers against lesser opponents as compared with high-tempo teams.
Pomeroy's formula, if I understand it correctly, would equally value a team that leads 45-35 with five minutes left and a team that leads 90-70 with five minutes left if the latter game was played at twice the pace. But in the second game, the superior team would be easing off and probably even considering bringing in their scrubs. The notion of "garbage time" affecting efficiency numbers is a concern in all sports, of course, but far more so in college basketball, and especially at this stage. And I imagine that teams like 2007-08 Washington State and Wisconsin don't really get a lot of "garbage time." Obviously, no team plays at double the pace of another team, but you get the point. Over a 35 game schedule that presumably includes 20 or more blowouts for the elite teams that don't play at a snail's pace, tempo could make a huge difference in effort down the stretch, which would make a huge difference in efficiency numbers.
Anyway, as I said, we're generally in agreement about its value as compared to shooting percentages and whatnot. Just thought this was a good place to vent on something that's always bothered me about Pomeroy.
This discussion would be a lot more helpful if you guys would speak English - you kids and your numbers. I've been wagering on college basketball games since you guys were sucklin' on your mamas' teats (read that last part in your best Groundskeeper Willie impression), so I admit to looking at games sometimes in old-fashioned ways, like comparing the player matchups. Obviously I'm doing something right with that awesome negative 12 units I've accumulated so far this year. Always willing to learn new tricks. Keep up the good work fellas.
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