New Years Eve

Getting kicked in the nuts by college basketball today. I'm much more accustomed to the professionals doing that, so playing 3 NBA games tonight, plus one more bowl game:

College Football

Minnesota +8 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

Support for Kansas has been around 65% all along, but the line has dropped steadily from an opener of Kansas -10.5. I read a comment over at Moneyline that Minny was a Dr. Bob pick, so that might explain the move from 9 to 8, but the line had already dropped a point and a half before that. Kansas is slightly better, but it felt like Minnesota has been underrated all season in the lines (just looked, 7-4 ATS so easy for me to say that now, right) and I think they keep this one close. After such an awful season in 2007, you've gotta think those Gopher kids are hungry.

NBA

Bucks +8 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units

Raptors +2 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Thunder +2.5 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Like I've said before, the less I try to get inside the heads of these overpaid slack-asses, the better.

The only remaining lean was Wyoming in college hoops, but the betting and line movement makes that one look like a pass (guaranteed winner alert!). Stay safe tonight everybody. While you're trying to convince the drunkest skank in the bar to take you home and let you defile her, I'll be sitting here cursing at the TV and trying to stay sober enough to change a diaper if I need to.

Late Afternoon Hoops

Northwestern really shit the crisper in the second half didn't they? Two more college basketball picks for the afternoon, then away from the computer for a while:

Bowling Green +6 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

70% on Duquesne, but BG is the better team. With the line retreating a little bit, I think somebody out there agrees with me.

Middle Tennessee State -1.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

I can't believe North Texas opened as the favorite. MTS is the MUCH better team here. Consensus numbers not as big on North Texas as Duquesne, but a 2.5-point line move (so far, it may end up moving even more) still makes this a pick.

Back in a couple hours.

Flirting With Disaster

Dammit, dammit, dammit. I knew that if I tried to pick and choose between the 3 yesterday, I would pick the losers and pass the winners. Dammit. Of course, I would have been better off just skipping them all, but that's water under the bridge and I'm not going to complain about it anymore. Dammit. For Wednesday afternoon:

College Football

Flirting with disaster here because we're getting dangerously close to going into the red in this sport (help us, Utah, you're our only hope!). Just one from the early games:

Vanderbilt +3 +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units

75% on BC at wagerline, 76% according to Sports Insights, yet the line has actually dropped from the opener of BC -4. Basically, a home game for Vandy, who should be extremely pumped up for their first bowl game in 342 years, while BC, which goes to bowl games all the time, might not be so excited about being in the Gaylord Bowl. When BC kicks the last-second winning FG to give me the push, rather than the win I would have had if I paid the extra juice for +3.5, you'll see me on CNN taking hostages somewhere.

College Basketball

Another potential disaster, because somehow while reviewing the opening lines last night, I failed to notice that most of the college hoops games were afternoon games. Now, I'm here at the office without my list of leans from last night or my bastardized "power ratings" that I use to generate those leans. I think I can look at the card and remember what most of them were, but you have been forewarned that you are relying on the short-term memory of somebody who has had more mind-altering subtances run through his brain than most lab rats. The early afternoon picks:

Harvard +6 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

Northwestern +3 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

Northeastern (symmetry!) +17 +114, 1 unit to win 1.14 units

Indiana State +9.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units

Evansville +8 -112, 1.12 units to win 1 unit

Hopefully, I won't be around a computer when this horror show gets going. Remember how computer games used to have a "panic" key that you could hit if your boss walked by and the screen would turn into some kind of fake spreadsheet. I think CBS Sportsline needs that for their scoreboards. Not planning on working super late today, so should be home in time for the later games, but the leans are Bowling Green and Middle Tennessee State at the moment. Of course, now that I let those slip, the books will start desperately moving those lines against me. Which will only make me want them more. Sick.

Tuesday Night Not-So-Educated Guesses

For tonight:

College Football

Western Michigan +2.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

70% support for Rice all along, but there's been either no line movement at some books (but altered juice at least) or a half-point the other way at others. Hopefully, Rice's atrocious defense will fall down on the job once again.

Passing Oregon after I sat around thinking about it all day and watched the number fall down to just +1. We like the reverse line movement, and the public support for Oklahoma State, so I can't fault anybody for playing the Ducks, but Grover thinks the PAC-10 was very weak this year, and I'm not sure how much value is left after the big move.

NBA

Bucks +8 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

Public likes the Spurs, line hanging tough all day. That's all I've got to say about this evil league tonight.

College Basketball

South Carolina +2.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

A good team nobody is talking about with Fredrick and Downey in the backcourt and Archie and Holmes up front. Clemson is a good team, also, but we'll take the underrated home dog following the public betting and line retreat.

UAB +5 +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units

Butler always seems to play good fundamental basketball even when they don't have a ton of talent, but UAB has a big enough edge in talent to stay within the number or win straight up. Public over 70% on Butler which is a little bizarre, even after some impressive postseason play recently.

Arkansas +5.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

Repeat after me: betting and line movement, betting and live movement. Razorbacks getting some really good production from their bench this year, which has made up for a starting 5 I didn't have high hopes for at the beginning of the season.

That's probably it, unless one of the late west coast games (e.g. Sacramento State) jumps into favor later on. Good luck everybody.

Sold!

OK, after looking at the game again, reading the comments on last night's post, and watching the line keep moving up to -3, I'm playing at least one of the three bowl games today:

Nevada -3 +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units

Can't ignore that line move, even if the wagerline support for Maryland is only around 60%. Good point in the comments by jwsherjr that getting the wagerline crowd to back an underdog at a 60% clip is pretty impressive, because they love favorites over there. Thanks also to sham for his comments. Nothing special about Maryland this year, but the ACC team as an underdog to a WAC team is too fishy to pass. Back later with all the rest.

NFL Win Totals in Review: The Good, the Good and the Ugly

The NFL regular season has ended, and it's finally time to review our noble experiment with NFL win total bets. Let's start with the conclusion: as we had hoped, this is a great way to bet on the NFL. While probably not as profitable over the long term as MLB win total bets based on PECOTA and other projections, I think it's possible to win over the long term using the DVOA-based projections from the Pro Football Prospectus published by the guys at Football Outsiders, along with a little common sense. So let's look at all of the projections we considered, both the ones we played and the ones we avoided. As you may remember, we looked for any teams where the win total lines and the PFP projections differed by 1.5 wins or more.


Baltimore Ravens- PFP: 8.5 wins. Line: Over 6.0 -115. Actual Win Total: 11.

We played the over on this one for a 3 unit profit. This was an easy money play on par with the Rays Over bets from lasr year. PFP had no way of knowing that Joe Flacco was going to be as good as he was, but this team would have won more than 6 games with little Hambone Jr. at QB. They might struggle with fitting him for a helmet, though.


Carolina Panthers- PFP: 9.5 wins. Line: Over 7.5 -160. Actual Win Total: 12.

Two home runs. But two is not a trend. And we didn't play it because of the huge juice, because we're pussies. Moving on ...


Cleveland Browns- PFP: 6.3 wins. Line: Under 8 +110. Actual Win Total: 4.

Hmmm. Think these nerdy stat guys might be on to something here. We passed here because there was only a 1.7 win disparity, and we thought the Derek Anderson variable was too much of a wildcard. Next season we'll know better.


Dallas Cowboys- PFP: 8.1 wins. Line: Under 10.5 +110. Actual Win Total: 9.

Actual win total: 9. Perceived win total: 3. Good times, good times. We took this one for a tidy 3.15 unit profit. We started out playing it for five units because this was the perfect storm of overvaulation, but pussied out- a recurring theme, apparently. Once again, next season we'll know better. 3.15units is a decent payday, though.


Detroit Lions- PFP: 4.3 wins. Line: Under 6.5 +110. Actual Win Total: Zero.

Wow. This one was over before Rosh Hashanah. I'm not even sure what to say. I'd love to go back and review my Pro Football Prospectus to see what they were saying to justify their Lion-trashing, but my fiancee used it as a paint can stand last weekend, and now it's covered in something called Column Beige. 3 unit profit for us here, although I feel kind of dirty about it, like that banker in the movie Inside Man who made his fortune off the Holocaust.


Green Bay Packers- PFP: 11.4 wins. Line: Over 8.0 -130. Actual Win Total: 6.

And here we find the exception that proves the rule, as well as the "Ugly" referenced in the title of this post. We took a huge 5.2 unit loss on this play, our biggest one of the year. But I maintain that it was the value play. The Pack outscored their opponents by 39 points. They had the extreme misfortune of drawing the AFC and NFC South in the out-of-division game rotation. Swap the Cowboys game and the Houston game on their schedule, and I think that move alone would get them to eight wins (both were Lambeau Field losses that came as the visitors were at the peak of rollercoaster seasons). Mix in all the close losses and blowout wins, and you conclude that this is a 9-10 win team. They'll win this money back for us next season.


Minnesota Vikings- PFP: 10.1 wins. Line: Over 8.5 -125. Actual Win Total: 10.

Another pass by us, another lost profit. Once again, the public overestimates the value of QB play and underestimates the value of line play. By the way, in case you're not counting, Football Outsiders is now 6-1 against Vegas where there's a disparity of 1.5 games or more. I think we're on to something.


Oakland Raiders- PFP: 3.9 wins. Line: Under 6.5 -150. Actual Win Total 5.

Make that 7-1. And once again, we're pussies. We gotta get over this fear of juice. Sure it affects the value of a given bet, but if there's still value, there's still value, even if it's expensive value.


Philadelphia Eagles- PFP: 11.7 wins. Line: Over 8.5 -160. Actual Win Total: 9.

See the above paragraph, changing "7-1" to "8-1." Christ these guys are good.


Pittsburgh Steelers- PFP: 7.2 wins. Line: Under 9 -105. Actual Win Total: 12.
Score one for the pussies! PFP is now 8-2. Amateurs. (In all seriousness, I continue to think that PFP's numbers overvalue strength of schedule, which was my reason for passing on this one. The Steelers were judged to have the toughest schedule in football, and it didn't really turn out that way).


Seattle Seahawks- PFP: 10.5 wins. Line: Over 8.5 -165. Actual Win Total: 4.

See above (their schedule was ranked 24th). Although I think you have to give the Outsiders a pass here. The book comes out early in the preseason. I think if you had told them that the Seahawks would be scouring the Seattle-area flag football leagues for guys to start at WR as the season began, they would have revised their projections downward a bit.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers- PFP: 10.5 wins. Line: Over 8 -130. Actual Win Total: 9.

This one hit for us for 2 units back in November. The Bucs then proceeded to lose their remaining games to make it look a lot closer than it was. Odd. But the money's still green.

Review: Using what I'll call the PFP System- if you had bet on any team with a win disparity of 1.5 or greater, with no adjustments for strength of schedule or considerations of the juice- you would have gone 9-3. That is outstanding. What's more, all three of the misses can be "explained" in one way or another. The Packers' losing season, as I discussed at length, was a bit of an anomaly. The other two misses were teams where the disparity was less than 2 games and the teams had extreme SOS rankings. But these sorts of variations will always happen. 9-3 is about as good as you can get. Let's just hope the books don't catch on to this. They don't seem to have picked up on PECOTA yet, although I have my concerns for the 2009 MLB season.

Our Profit: 5.95 Units. Damn that 5.2 unit play on the Packers. Total lack of discipline on our part. Can't speak for Hambone, but I think I wanted to adopt a "second team" for the season, and the Pack, with their likeable post-Favre story, were a great candidate. So I put too many eggs in this basket. Still, 5.95 units is a quality payday. And more importantly, it puts us in the black for the NFL season, something I personally never thought possible. I've always thought the NFL was the toughest nut to crack. We promise we won't sit on it to ensure a profit, though. Look for our playoff picks later this week.

The Weakest Link?

So, which of these are not worth playing on Tuesday in the bowl games?

Nevada -2.5 vs. Maryland
Western Michigan +3 vs. Rice
Oregon +3 vs. Oklahoma State

Haven't played any of them yet, just thinking about it. To some degree, I like all of them, but playing all 3 bowl games on a day where there are only 3 games makes me feel like kind of a dick. The wagerline consensus against Nevada is the only one under 70% (I'm seeing it at 60% right now), so maybe that one isn't as strong. Also, Nevada played in that cupcake WAC conference this year, so maybe some of their stats are misleading. Hmmmmm, of course, the lure of weekday afternoon football is strong.

Help me out, folks. Any suggestions appreciated.

Back To Work Blues

Going back to the office after 5 days off is no fun at all. Phone never stops ringing, no time to goof off looking at sports information. Still, a pretty healthy list of picks put together after getting home:

College Football

Northwestern +12 +109, 1 unit to win 1.09 units

Mostly, as usual, just looking at the betting and line movement. 65-70% on Missouri at wagerline the whole time, but the line dropped from Missouri -13.5 to -12. Northwestern hasn't been overwhelmed by teams that like to throw it a lot like Purdue and Illinois. Those teams don't have quite the stats as Chase Daniel and crew, but Missouri's defense is much worse as well. Slow and steady Northwestern keeps it close.

NBA

Thunder +9 +113, 1 unit to win 1.13 units

76ers +6.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

I think I do better in the NBA when I just look at the line moves and don't try to come up with player-based justifications for the picks. Cant' trust any of 'em, so just go with the numbers.

College Basketball

Temple +9 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Christmas vs. Reynolds should be fun. Dante Cunningham in the frontcourt gives Nova the win, but it should be a close one.

Long Beach State +9 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Don't tell anybody....Oregon is not any good.....sssshhhhhhhh.

Idaho State -5.5 +117, 1 unit to win 1.17 units

You can throw out the records when these two rivals lace 'em up! Seriously, though, there's no real betting consensus, but Idaho State is a much better team. Are we allowed to say things like that anymore?

College of Charleston +4.5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

73% of wagerline backing Stephen Curry and Davidson tonight, but I don't think Curry's teammates are good enough for them to be favored over C.O.C. in Charleston.

Passing CS-Northridge (line opened at +10.5 and is now +3.5? Must be a typo somewhere), Eastern Washington, and Central Michigan. Good luck everybody.

Tomorrow's Leans Tonight - Part Deux

Last night's leans for today, even if we go ahead and count Texas Tech as a loss (it's only halftime, but I'm not staying up to see the rest), went 6-3-1 which is not too shabby considering I didn't know how the betting would shake out. I'll try it again, just looking at the opening lines at Pinnacle, for Monday:

Temple +9 at Villanova
Central Michigan +21 at Kentucky
Cal State Northridge +10.5 at Cal State Fullerton (a National Championship preview)
Long Beach State +10 at Oregon
Idaho State -5 vs. Idaho (throw out the records!)
College of Charleston +4.5 vs. Davidson
Eastern Washington +6 at Boise State

Not all road teams like last night, and there's even a favorite in there. Let's see how it goes tomorrow. 4-2 at worst today on the actual picks (again, if you count Texas Tech as a loser), so going to bed satisfied. Good night everybody.

Sunday Night Hoops

Illinois State looks like they're going to overtime. The rest for Sunday:

NBA

Pacers +4 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

The Pacers website is acting like Granger is going to play after getting cracked in the head Friday night. If he doesn't, this one is going to be tough.

College Basketball

Wichita State +11 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

Siena +4.5 +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units

Texas Tech +9.5 -115, 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Nothing fancy on any of those, just betting and/or line movements. Good luck everybody.

Sunday Afternoon Basketball

Nothing in the NBA looking all that exciting today, but two quick college hoops games, both tipping off around 3 PM Eastern:

Illinois State -2.5 +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units

Rice +10 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

On Sunday NFL Countdown, Emmitt Smith just said that the Chargers are still ticked off about their first game with Denver, because "Ed Hochuli messed up the Chargers' career. And not only their career, but their season also." How does that guy still have his job?

NFL Week 17, or Lack Thereof

No plays as of now in the NFL. There are very few games where both teams are equally motivated, and as a fan of hard numbers, I don't like to mess with games like that. Public sentiment seems to be heavily against the Broncos in tonight's game vs. San Diego, so that's a possibility later today, but that's probably the only game I'll consider.

If you see an angle today, best of luck to you. Otherwise, enjoy the games, and I'll start thinking about the playoff matchups.

Tomorrow's Leans Tonight - Old School Edition

After a quick look over the opening lines at Pinnacle, and with no regard for how the lines might move or what the betting percentages will look like tomorrow, here are the off-the-top-of-my-head leans for Sunday's college basketball games:

Eastern Michigan +20 at Illinois
Indiana State +8 at No. Iowa
Louisiana Tech +26 at UCLA
Rice +10 at Arkansas-Little Rock
LMU +22 at Mew Mexico State
Valpo +25 at Purdue
Wichita State +12 at Creighton
Texas Tech +9.5 at Stanford
Montana +21 at Washington
Siena +5.5 at St. Joseph's

All road teams. Weird. Anyway, I'm just doing this out of curiosity to see how I would do if I handicapped tomorrow's games just based on my estimation of the talent of the teams and the lines, the way we used to do it before there were wagerlines and such out there to help. As the betting percentages start rolling in and the lines start moving, these will be whittled down to the actual picks, but let's see how these would have done if we had played them all. You're my boy, Blue!

Saturday Night Basketball

As already commented on elsewhere, that late line move in the Wisconsin game is a real bitch. But, we were already holding our ticket on the Badgers by that point, and weren't concerned enough to buy back. I guess we'll find out in the next couple of hours if that was the right move. On to the hoops:

NBA

Bucks -5.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

Break up the Bucks! Wow, this one looks so wrong, it it must be right. The Pistons have been the most consistent team in the East for years, while the Bucks have been cellar-dwellers. Even with decent public support for the Pistons, though, the Bucks are an even bigger favorite tonight than where they started. A late Christmas gift for us, and a lump of coal for the squares.

College Basketball

Portland -2.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

False move! False move! False move! OK, got that out of my system. When that line initially went from the opener of Portland -1 down to a pick, I started to wonder if it was possible that I wasn't the super-genius I imagined myself to be. Fortunately, the line dramatically went back the other way and confirmed my geniusness (geniusity?). Wagerline favors Portland also, but it's less than 60%. Better team, on a neutral floor, we'll give a couple of points after watching that line move.

San Jose State +14.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

Nice little team, with a well balanced roster. SJ St. doesn't have quite the talent as St. Mary's, but with 14 points to play with, they should be able to hang close. Also, we've got the reverse line move here that makes us feel warm and fuzzy.

That's it. No time to look at hockey. Haven't looked at the NFL at all yet, either, and it's doubtful that we're going to get too heavily involved in Week 17. Back tomorrow.

Waiting For The Other Shoe To Drop...

After a 4-0 night yesterday, there's only one way for this thing to go today. One college football pick for Saturday afternoon:

Wisconsin +6 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

A popular pick around the contrarian sports blog block today, and I think everybody is onto something. Except for the Miami game they won by 2 points, what Division I team has FSU really dominated on the field this year? Anyone? Bueller? Doesn't really look like it. With all the talk about the Seminoles' speed, they've only outgained 2 of their opponents by more than 100 yards this season. Badgers will pound the ball on the ground and keep that game clock moving. Public likes the 'Noles. We'll go the other way.

I said something last night about a full college hoops card returning today, but I was wrong (really wrong). There are actually more games tomorrow, and a really short list for a Saturday. Back with a couple for tonight later, and hopefully, we'll get a chance to look at the NBA in the next couple of hours.

Post-X-mas Hangover

Still got some family in town, so gonna make this quick. For Friday night:

College Basketball

Fairfield +22 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit

Now, there's the line movement I was waiting for! It feels forced to have a pick on the only game being played, but I've been staring at that UConn -23.5 for a couple of days now, thinking it would likely drop a little bit, despite over 70% of Wagerline on the favorite. Good point guard and decent post play for the Stags, and the Huskies have been far from consistently dominant this season so far.

NBA

Thunder +10 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

I feel a little queasy every time I type "Thunder" in a picks post, but they seem to cash more often than not when we pick them. They're hanging tough in most of their games, but not winning any, so for recreational bettors just looking at the win/loss record, they're not getting the full picture. Pistons still out of sorts after the Chauncey trade.

76ers +6.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

'Melo's absence should hurt the Nuggets more than Brand's will hurt the Sixers. Sixers seem to be better when they're running anyway. Nuggets are the biggest public favorite tonight, but the line went the other way. Yummy.

NHL

Tampa Bay +144, 0.5 units to win 0.72 units

In all honesty, with no college hoops to work on the past couple of days, my mind wandered to the hockey card for tonight. As I've said many times, I know nothing about hockey, but a quick look at the stats (mostly, the "special teams" numbers for power play goals and penalty killing) makes me think that these teams aren't this far apart.

OK, that wasn't so quick after all. Couldn't restrain my tendency to ramble. Good luck to everybody playing Florida Atlantic in the bowl game tonight. For some reason, I just haven't been able to pull the trigger on that one. I hope it covers, but we'll be sitting that one out. Good night everybody. Full college hoops card back tomorrow.

Christmas in the NBA

It's becoming a tradition like the NFL on Thanksgiving, except that the NBA is still scheduling good matchups, as opposed to the NFL giving the Lions a holiday game every year. Slight leans in a couple of games today, after taking the day off yesterday, but only going to play the side and total in the marquee matchup:

Lakers -2 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Public slightly favoring the Celts in this one, but a one-point line move toward the home team. Celtics not quite as dominant in their road games this year as they are at home. I'm not gonna have time to read the boards today, but I wonder if the prevailing square view is "the Lakers want it more" after losing in the finals, or that "the Celtics are better" because they won the finals and are on a 19-game winning streak. I would guess it's fairly evenly split.

Lakers/Celtics Under 200.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit

Mostly, just going against the most popular total on the board at wagerline (65% Over). In the big spotlight, both teams should be exerting effort on the defensive end this afternoon.

In hindsight, there may have been some reasons to go with Notre Dame last night (line move, the WAC was shit this year, etc.), but we were happy to take a day away from thinking about it for the first time in a long time. Enjoy the holdiay, folks.

Because I'm Not That Smart

Already have a winning night in college hoops in the bank, but I'm off from work for the next 5 days, so I'm gonna play one more tonight (I know that doesn't make any sense, just go with it). Game tips off at midnight eastern time:

UC-Riverside +5 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units

Big public support for the favorite + line retreat + I like the dog's players better = Pick. I'm really good at math.

Passing on Wyoming because of the line movement, which is the same reason I passed on winners like Portland State, Cleveland State, and Iona earlier, and look how well that worked out. Good night everybody. I don't think there are any college basketball games again until Friday. Jesus Christ, is there some kind of holiday coming up or something?

Christmas Eve Eve Basketball

Running very late, so just the picks:

College

Detroit +4.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Marshall +8.5 +126, 1 unit to win 1.26 units

SMU +16.5 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

NBA

Thunder +11.5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Hornets -2.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units

Bucks -1 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

Timberwolves +11.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

Maybe back with a couple of late college games. Fade away.

Poinsettia Bowl

In tonight's bowl game:

TCU -3 -119, 1.19 units to win 1 unit

There's an interesting discussion going on over at The Money Line Journal about whether there is still value left in this game after the line move from -2.5 to -3 -120, especially where the public is only very slightly favoring Boise State, so take a look over there before you make up your mind. To us, we think the fact that the line is moving in favor of the lower-ranked team, which is also a 2-loss team playing an undefeated media darling (how many clips of the Statue of Liberty play and marriage proposal are we going to have to sit through tonight?), is a sign that somebody that knows more than us likes the Frogs tonight. And before you say it, we acknowledge that the qualifier "knows more than us" doesn't exactly narrow things down very much.

We don't think a lot of recreational bettors are going to look through the schedule to find that TCU's two losses were AT OKLAHOMA and at Utah (in a game TCU was leading the whole way until the last 47 seconds), or that Boise's undefeated season is a joke once you look at the teams they played (Oregon and Southern Miss were their toughest opponents all year, and then they spent the rest of the season fattening up on Idaho, San Jose State, Utah State, etc.). For TCU to end up with the #1 rushing defense (yards/game), #9 passing defense, and #13 rushing offense in the nation when their schedule included road games at Oklahoma, Utah, and Colorado State, and a home game vs. BYU, is pretty impressive. No Smurf Turf on the field tonight. Go Frogs.

The Rest For Monday

Three more in college basketball:

Northeastern +1.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit

Cal State Northridge +13 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

Middle Tennessee State +3.5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

Only the heavyweight programs for us. Good luck everybody.

Monday Night Basketball - Early Games

Still looking at the later games, but played three already for the early evening college hoops schedule:

Towson St. +9 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

Down to 8.5 at some books, despite a majority of the public on Bowling Green. Edge to BG on the wing, but everywhere else pretty close. Line move seals the deal, even though I have no idea where Towson is.

Cornell +9 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

Another line that's down to 8.5 at several books - thank you, Matchbook. Even after last year, it's still weird when the best Ivy League team isn't Penn or Princeton. I like St. Joe's and we've backed them more than once this year, but I think this game will be close. Here, it's Cornell with the edge on the wing, plus the 9 points. Last a little longer with Big Red.

Chattanooga +12 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

Alabama has been pretty inconsistent so far in the early going. They can play great against a good team, and terribly against a bad team. Over 70% of wagerline on Bama, but the line has retreated slightly, so we have to make a choice between following smart people or following retarded people. Hmmmmmmm. Give me a second. We choose smart!

Almost definitely back later with games starting at 9 PM Eastern or later.

Afternoon Hoops From Puerto Rico

I'm going to have to come back after work and narrow down the list for tonight (looking at 9-10 at the moment), but we have one pick for this afternoon, game tips off at 3 PM Eastern:

Murray State +1.5 -111, 1.11 units to win 1 unit

Line opened late at Wright State -1.5 and has dropped to -1 at some books already. Not much consensus data to go on because of the line just coming out recently (Sports Insights says 90% Wright State, which is completely insane), but with the tiny line move, and looking at the players involved, this one is worth a pick. Even if Wright State's leading scorer (Duggins) weren't sitting this one out, I would still give the edge to Murray State because of their advantage in the paint - e.g. 2 players (Aska & McClain) both averaging more than 6 rebounds per game so far. With Duggins injured, I can't see how Wright State can be favored, even on a neutral court.

Back after work with the rest.

Late Start Sunday

Holiday family obligations kept me from doing any homework until now, which turns out to be a good thing, because I probably would've played Youngstown State earlier which was a loser. So, thanks, Mom & Dad, your Christmas visit this weekend spared your son from making a losing gambling pick. They would be so proud. I might have played Virginia Tech to even things out, but that line was so far off, I would have been a little bit afraid of it. Even at MSG, how on Earth are those teams equal? Crazy. I thought maybe a flesh-eating virus was working its way through the Hokie lockerroom or something. Anyway, one pick from each of these three sports:

College Basketball

Clemson +2.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

I have these teams as dead even, but I'll give the bookies the benefit of the doubt on that line move.

College Football

Southern Miss +4 +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units

Grover talked me into the Colorado State play yesterday with his love for the under-appreciated Mountain West. Today, I'm going with his disdain for the Sun Belt.

NBA

Wizards +6 +112, 1 unit to win 1.12 units

Mike James fitting in nicely, and I already gave out the strategy to beat Dallas a couple of days ago (double-team Dirk, good defender on Hash Howard, nobody else on that team is any good), so if they're reading this blog in Chocolate City, they should know how to make this one happen.

Back tomorrow.

Thanks, Navy Defense & College Hoops

Nice job on that play with 1 minute left. You knew Wake would run because the game was over, but you somehow forgot that you still need to tackle the guy. That was a real heartbreaker. Maybe tilting a little bit, and family about to show up to the house, so here's a ton of college hoops plays to last the rest of day, all to win 1 unit:

Drake +1 -108
Auburn +4 -107
LSU -1.5 +100
Tennessee Tech +14 +100
St. Mary's -5 -109
Portland +9.5 -104
Jacksonville State +5 -109
Northwestern +5 -110

I can't come up with a comment that doesn't involve cursing the Navy kids, so I'll just end it.

NFL Week 16

Not a lot of action this week. Too many injuries and uncertainties about teams' motivation. I expect that will also be the case next week. Let's get to it.

Baltimore Ravens +6 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

Line movement towards Baltimore at most books despite the public slightly favoring the Cowboys at around a 60/40 split. BetUS, as usual, is giving us a little something extra for fading a media darling. The game is generally listed at +4.5 elsewhere, and at +4 +110 at last check on Matchbook. DVOA numbers favor Baltimore by a decent margin. All of those things suggest value here at +6 or even +4. This may be our last week of BetUS bargains, so enjoy it. And remember: this game is being played Saturday night, so get your bets in today.


Seattle Seahawks +4 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

The Seahawks, as most people know, are bidding farewell to Mike Holmgren tonight. I'm not one to overvalue such things, but at least we can rest assured that this team that has been eliminated from the playffs won't mail it in, which can be a concern in Weeks 16 and 17. The Jets, who have been unimpressive at best over the last month, are getting 66% of the action according to Wagerline. They're a mere 17th in the DVOA rankings. They're giving 4. On the road. To a team that's been vastly improved in recent weeks. Hopefully that's more than enough to convince you of this play. It's certainly enough for me.

Saturday Hoops - Early Afternoon Addition

Family coming to town, I'm watching the baby, not a lot of time for long-winded write-ups at the moment, but here are the first round of picks:

Appalachian State +15 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

Well-balanced scoring for the Mountaineers, and Kentucky is missing their 3rd-leading scorer with injury. Patterson has a big game, but App State hangs with them until late.

Wofford +12 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

Can I just say Georgia isn't any good and leave it at that? Oh yeah, I just did.

Temple +9 +122, 1 unit to win 1.22 units

It's Christmas time in Kansas! Dionte Christmas. Oh, come on, I wouldn't be the biggest dork you know if I didn't make a lame joke like that. Seriously, though, this game looks pretty even to me, except that Christmas is far away the best player on the court. And look at the juice! I love Matchbook.

Considered Iona, but with Springer injured, I just couldn't pull the trigger (guaranteed winner alert!). Lots of possibilities today, but if I can get a little bit of free time today, I might be able to narrow it down to 5-6 more before the day is done. If there were an injury report for my chances of actually getting some free time today, it would be listed as Questionable. Good luck everybody.

Bowling For Dollars

I meant to do these last night, but several beers later I just didn't have the energy. Without further ado:

Wake/Navy Under 42 +119 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.19 units

The most popular football total at Wagerline today is the Over in this game, although the consensus is not huge (around 60-63% all week). Wake has no offense, and Navy has the most extreme one-dimensional offensive split in the country (1st in rushing yards/gm, last in passing). Knowing that there won't be any passing, Wake's 21st-ranked rushing defense should be able to sell out against the option on every play, which should make it difficult for Navy to score unless Wake turns the ball over 6 times like they did in the first game (unlikely). The total can be found at 43 or 43.5 at some books, but with much worse juice. Interestingly, at Matchbook, you could get 41.5 (a worse number) at +114 (worse juice), which would be a disaster to accidentally take, so pay attention.

Colorado State +2.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

Taking a chance here (it's called gambling after all) on giving up the key number of 3 here to get the better juice. A game-winning field goal by Fresno at the end will result in some loud cursing. Grover likes the underappreciated Mountain West teams this bowl season, and we both agree that Fresno is still getting too much credit for past years' accomplishments. Neither of these teams is any good, but we think the Rams are not quite as bad. That's a ringning endorsement if I ever saw one, right?

Back later with hoops.

I Love The NBA

I take back everything I said the other night. The last 2 picks for Friday night were never in doubt, but the Clippers actually winning in overtime, after blowing the cover in overtime two nights ago, was a nice dose of justice.

Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in......(read that in your best Al Pacino voice)

Friday Night Basketball

Bowl season gets going tomorrow, but for tonight, it's still about hoops:

College

Western Carolina +17 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Marquette is better, but the Catamounts are decent, and judging by the small line retreat in the face of public support for Marquette, the books aren't so sure about this line.

NBA

This is going to suck....

Clippers +2.5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

Daniels, Ford, and Murphy all questionable for tonight for the Pacers. Big public support for Indiana, but the line is right were it started. Weird line move here, was it another one of my false move boogeymen? Don't know, but if the Clippers lose again in overtime, I might have to kick Zach Randolph's ass (please don't tell him I said that, the dude is big).

Nets +3.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

Another team that ripped my guts out in the 4th quarter Wednesday night, so I'm obviously a masochist. Defensively, they should put Lopez, Yi, and Simmons all on Dirk, let Devin Harris guard Josh Howard, hope that Vince at least doesn't dunk in the wrong basket, and dare the rest of that scrub Mavs roster to beat them. I can't believe none of the six NBA teams who have fired coaches this season have called me. I'm a tactical genius.

Thunder +6 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

Wow, I'm really backing the powerhouses tonight. OK is hanging in all of their games recently, just not winning straight-up, while Toronto has been extremely disappointing (what's going on up there?). More than 70% on Toronto, but the line went the other way, which we obviously like. I'm a glutton for punishment.

Good luck everybody. Probably playing the first 2 football games tomorrow, but gonna keep looking just a little bit more. If I get just one of those NBA picks tonight, I will consider it a Christmas miracle.

College Hoops Thursday

Not much going on tonight. Just two from the amateur ranks:

South Alabama -4 +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units

Another rare favorite. Both teams have played Louisville this season already - Western Kentucky won and USA got blown out, so WKU must be a lot better. Nope. Home court and the advantage in the frontcourt for USA is worth giving a few points.

Northern Colorado +6.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

With an 11 PM Eastern tipoff, I'll be asleep before this one even gets started. Fresno State is the most popular favorite on the board, but maybe people are thinking about the football team, because I just don't see it.

P.S. Before playing Florida International, make sure you look at their injury report. That line looks like a gift until you see all the players who are out.

I Hate The NBA

Three picks last night, three frustrating endings:

Pick #1: Bucks +3.5

Margin after 3rd quarter: Bucks up by 6
Margin after 4th quarter: Bucks lose by 5 (outscored 26-15 in 4th)

Pick #2: Nets +2.5

Margin after 3rd quarter: Nets up by 6 (sound familiar?)
Margin after 4th quarter: Nets lose by 11 (outscored 40-23 in the 4th. yes, you read that correctly, 40 pts allowed in the 4th quarter)

Picks #3: Clippers +3

Margin after 3Q: Clippers up by 3
Margin after 4Q: Tie game
Margin after OT: Clippers lose by 6

That last one is the most frustrating. The books set basketball and football lines based on regulation time, so the bets should be paid at the end of regulation time. If it's a tie, the underdog pick is the winner and the favorites lose. Period. I've always felt this way, but I guess if you're a square who plays favorites all the time, you love having that last chance to redeem yourself in overtime after you make a bad pick. Next time I think about betting on these idiots in the NBA, I'm just going smash myself in the balls with a hammer. It would be less painful.

Of course, we went 5-1 in the college games, so maybe I shouldn't whine so much, but I would have been happy if just ONE of those three had covered. Bastards.

NBA Threesome

No, I'm not talking about Justin Williams' troubles from last season. Three picks in the association for Wednesday night, all risking one unit:

Bucks +3.5 +102

Milwaukee is playing some decent basketball in recent days, but mostly this is a play against the most popular public pick of the day (Sixers) where the line went the other way.

Nets +2.5 +101

I'll be kicking myself in a few hours for backing Vince Carter again, but there it is. Some significant Jazz players still dealing with injuries (Boozer, AK47), which hurts their chances to win this game tonight, and my chances for cashing the season win total Over on the Jazz that I posted here before the season started (dammit).

Clippers +3 +101

Break up the Clippers! They're just too good, it's not fair! OK, it's only 3 wins in a row, but by Clippers' standards, that about as good as it gets. The new-look Clips not getting any respect in the lines, even against a Chicago team that has half their roster (Deng, Hughes, Noah, Nocioni) suffering from the flu. And, no, Larry Hughes with the flu does not equal Michael Jordan with the flu.

That's it for tonight, unless I get a wild hair and want to play a late college game. And, yes, before you comment, I realize that using the Three's Company picture makes me seem incredibly old...

Wednesday Night College Six-Pack

I like way too many games tonight, but for the moment, I've got it narrowed down to these six:

SMU +17 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

It's hard to imagine this game not being close. SMU has a nice player in the post, and everywhere else it's pretty much even. Don't get it, but that 2-point line move makes me think I might be right.

Harvard +4.5 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

77% of the wagerline crowd on Rice, but the line is holding pretty steady. Another one I don't get - I think Harvard is the better team.

The Citadel +27.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

I guess the perception still exists that the Spartans are really good. They're not. Their big advantage over a team like Citadel would be inside, but with Suton still out with an injury, the gap has narrowed. Another big line move here.

Austin Peay +6.5 -112, 1.12 units to win 1 unit

Austin Peay doesn't have a lot of height, but their inside players might be more talented than those playing for Arkansas. I know I sound like a broken record, but here again, you've got public support for the big-name school, but a line move the other way.

Siena +17.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Siena let me down when I backed them once earlier this season, in a game where I think Kenny Hasbrouck shot 13% from the field (it was probably 30%, but still). Pitt is a strong team, and has a definite advantage inside, but Siena's strength at the 2 and 3 makes up for it.

UTEP -2 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

A favorite? Yep, a favorite. Might have been a false move here, but of course, I've been seeing false moves lately as frequently as Haley Joel Osment saw dead people, so who knows. What I do know is that Stefon Jackson for UTEP is far better than anybody on Texas Tech's roster this year.

There were others under consideration, so we'll see if I can restrain myself to just these six when I get home from work tonight. I'm sure there will at least be an NBA pick or two added later. We've picked up about 5 units in the NBA over the past 5 days, so hopefully, our luck will hold out another day. Back later.

The Most Wonderful Time of the Year: Finding Value in the College Bowl Season

It's that time of year. The time of year when you realize that you're going to be spending the next two weeks looking for something, anything, to distract you from various holiday-related obligations. Cooking, cleaning, shopping, spending time with family ... it's no wonder that so many people commit suicide in December. Thankfully, the good people who run college football are happy to provide entertainment for the bored and miserable sports fan, and the good people who run offshore gambling websites are also happy to provide you with a way to enhance that entertainment. So how can you keep yourself sane this holiday season and make enough money to cover your liquor tab?

As usual, our plan at Against All Odds is to fade the conventional wisdom. This year the conventional wisdom is that the SEC is the best and deepest conference, and that the Big 12 is a close second, limited only because "they don't play defense." But, as is frequently the case, conventional wisdom is dead wrong.

Yes, the ACC is football's best top-to-bottom conference according to the Sagarin ratings, and the SEC is far closer to the oft-ridiculed Big East than it is to the ACC and the Big 12. My theory, if anyone cares, is that the misperception about the conferences is rooted in the early-season smackdown delivered by Alabama to Clemson. At the time Clemson was the ACC favorite and Alabama was universally considered to be no better than fourth, so the beating was seen as a clear display of SEC superiority. However, since then we've learned that Clemson is a middle-of-the-pack ACC team and that Alabama was a clear #2 in the SEC. We've also watched Duke (and Wake) beat Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech put up 45 in knocking off Georgia in Athens, and various other results that suggest that the SEC is not good at all, but simply top-heavy.

In addition to the ACC-SEC misperception, there's a couple other things to take note of. First, the Pac-10 is even worse than you thought. I can't imagine betting on a single Pac-10 team in a bowl game. Second, the Mountain West is head and shoulders above every single other non-BCS conference, and really not too far away from the bottom tier of BCS conferences.Finally, the Sun Belt is just awful. They're below the 1-AA Colonial, for Crissakes.

This piece is meant as general guidance for the bowl season, rather than a strict list of who to pick, but just for the fun of it, let's look at a few matchups worth considering based on these misperceptions:

Oklahoma (+3) vs. Florida, BCS Title Game. I believe this opened at Oklahoma -1.5, and the squares who eat up the Tebow love-fest have already bet it to this preposterous line. Hey Tim, you wish you could have played against those Big 12 defenses? What tough defenses did you carve up this year? The Georgia one that gave up 45 at home to a middling ACC team? The LSU one that couldn't slow down a single BCS conference team? Alabama, the team that basically handed you two touchdowns with boneheaded plays on the other side of the ball? The loss of Murray concerns me here, but not that much. Hey, you're gonna be watching anyway. As the addicts say: "might as well make it interesting."

Utah (+11) vs. Alabama, Sugar Bowl. Giddyup. Go look at those Sagarin conference ratings, keeping in mind that Utah tore through the Mountain West, and come tell me how this line makes any sense. I would bet Utah all the way down to +3 or +4 here, and I have no doubt that this will be a multi-unit play for me. The BCS computer rankings (you know, the ones not influenced by the talking heads) actually had Utah ahead of Alabama. Seriously.

Oklahoma State (-3.5) vs Oregon, Holiday Bowl. [Insert obligatory "I'm a man! I'm 40!" joke here]

Boston College (-4) vs. Vanderbilt, Music City Bowl. The "home field" thing is a little worrisome, but I just finished a pro-ACC, anti-SEC rant, so I gotta do what I gotta do.

Southern Mississippi (+4) vs. Troy, New Orleans Bowl. Just look again at how awful the Sun Belt is. And Southern Miss should at least have some fan support in New Orleans.
_

Just One For Tuesday So Far

In college hoops:

Tennessee Tech +17 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

The big line move from FSU -18.5 down to FSU -17 grabbed my attention this morning. Florida State looks like it's going to be one of those frustrating teams that gets up for the big-name schools and just goes through the motions against the little guys. They have some nice wins over Cincinnati, Cal, and Florida, but against the cupcakes on their schedule, they don't have any wins by more than 12 points so far this season. Tennessee Tech hasn't played anybody yet, but they've got a well-rounded roster, although admittedly lacking in size. FSU gets the win, but falls short of expectations. Again.

The betting numbers and line movement look right on South Florida, but there are several meaningful injuries in that game, which means it's probably a pass for us. Lean to Marquette also, but wagerline doesn't have any consensus numbers up right now, and covers says it's off the board. The books have a line on this game (Tennessee -6), but I'm wondering if there is about to be some kind of injury update coming. I'll take a look after work tonight.

Half-Man, Half-Ass

I know Kenny Smith likes to call Vince Carter "Half-Man, Half-Amazing," but when he only actually shows up to play hard "half" of the time, I like my nickname for him better. Hopefully, the constant boos in Toronto will inspire him to exert some effort tonight. In the NBA:

Nets +4 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

Bucks +4.5 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Just going with the line movement and against the public on these. And although I'm feeling confident in the college basketball plays recently (I think we've made up about 10 units in the past couple of weeks), I don't see anything tonight that I like enough to post a pick. Lean Youngstown State, Cal-Riverside, and I liked the Citadel until that weird line movement (I'm passing them all, so those are almost guaranteed winners). I was planning on playing a couple more yesterday, but the internet service at my house went out for several hours (up yours, Time Warner). Haven't seen the lines for tomorrow yet, but I know there's a big card coming up on Wednesday. Good night everybody.

Don't Screw It Up

8-3 overall yesterday, so I'll likely give it all back today. The way the hoops season has started, I should probably print out yesterday's post and frame it - it might be the last big day of the year. Two college hoops picks for this afternoon:

Illinois-Chicago +7 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

Not a lot of difference between these two teams. Jackets still missing a couple of guards to injury/suspension. Betting and line movement strong for the Flames as well. Hmmmm. This one looks almost too perfect, so beware.

UTEP +3.5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

UTEP has equal or better players in the frontcourt, and New Mexico State has no answer for scoring machine Stefon Jackson in the backcourt. UTEP should win straight-up, but because it's a road game, I'll take the points just in case.

NFL picks were posted yesterday morning. Back later with anything else that pops up.

Eight Is Enough

Eight may actually be too many, but I don't think I can whittle down the number any further without just weeding out picks at random. After a rare winning night in the NBA last night, and a winning afternoon in college hoops today, a wise man might call it a day. I've never claimed to be a wise man:

NBA

Hawks +4 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

Public huge on Cavs, but line went the other way. You don't hear a lot about Big Z, but I think they'll miss him while he's out of the lineup.

Bobcats +1 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

Should be an interesting one with Raja Bell and Boris Diaw immediately inserted in to the starting lineup for their first game in Charlotte. You gotta love Larry Brown.

Thunder +12.5 +107, 1 unit to win 1.07 units

Betting and line movement. The only reasons I could possibly stomach a pick on Oklahoma City.

Clippers +3.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

Can the Rockets keep up with the Clippers on the scoreboard without Ron Ron's defense? I say no.

College Basketball

Tennessee-Chattanooga +21 +107, 1 unit to win 1.07 units

Outside of Steph Curry, Chattanooga's players are just as good as Davidson's. Of course, if Curry scores 40 or so by himself, this could be in trouble. After missing the boat on Stephen Curry, nobody recruited his little brother Seth (freshman at Liberty)? Really? Indiana couldn't use a kid who can shoot/score like that? Kentucky couldn't use him? Virginia? St. John's? Nobody? Seriously? You've got a second chance not to screw the pooch on ignoring Dell's kids, and you still blow it? I find this incredibly disturbing, obviously.

Wisconsin-Green Bay +10 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

To me, the wrong team is favored tonight. No, really, and I haven't even started drinking yet. OK, I just started, but still......

Northern Colorado +20 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

Creighton doesn't have the bodies up front to win by this margin unless it's raining 3's in Nebraska tonight. Forecast tonight: clear and cool.

Portland +17.5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

Trent Plaisted is not walking through that door! Rafael Araujo is not walking through that door! I think I need to impose a moratorium on myself in using that paraphrased Rick Pitino bit. That's at least the second time I've done that shit in the last week or so. There isn't 18 points difference between these two clubs.

Good luck everybody. NFL picks went up this morning.

2 PM Hoops

I have a headache, so not much babbling this morning:

Harvard +10.5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

UMass +19 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Indiana State +25.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Disappointed in the Matchbook lines today. Back later.

NFL Week 15

A little late this week, but we found three this week. Before I get to them, I have a question: why are there no NFL games on Saturday this week? There's no college football, and the college basketball action is limited due to exams and whatnot. Perfect day for an NFL weekend takeover.

OK, onward:

Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 +103 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.03 units.

The Redskins are basically down to their scout team on the offensive line this week. Not much to like about either of these teams at the moment, so 6.5 points for the home team is value. 69% on the Skins according to Wagerline.

Houston Texans +4.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

This is as pure a contrarian play as you'll see (mixed in with some line-shopping value thanks to our friends at BetUS). On the face of it, there's no reason this number should be so small- it's generally -3 elsewhere, by the way. Something has to be going on. We've got the team with the best record in the league facing an under .500 team. Not gonna overthink this, just putting my money on the Texans. Predictably, Wagerline shows 70% on the Titans.

Baltimore Ravens -1.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

More BetUS value here. The game is .2.5 with added juice elsewhere. Here's a shocker for you- the Ravens are actually some amount better than the Steelers in the DVOA numbers. And they're just as hot of late. The Steelers were outplayed by the Cowboys and then got a gift-wrapped win from Romo. That game seems to be driving this line, with the home team getting less than a field goal. Consider this- if the Steelers had lost last week, would this line look like this? I think not. Wagerline bettors as backing the Steelers as well, although not by a huge margin.

Friday Hardwood

A winning day yesterday, so we've got that going for us, which is nice.

College Basketball

Iowa State +8 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

Even if Iowa's leading scorer (Anthony Tucker) weren't suspended a few days ago (he was drinking, that's right, a college student was drinking, the horror!), I would still think this line was a couple of points too high. Without Tucker, it should be tough for the Hawkeyes to run away with this one.

NBA

Hornets +6.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units

Pacers +6 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Clippers +8.5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

If these NBA picks go 0-3 tonight, we might be taking a hiatus from this sport. Just too hard to tell what nights the players are going to try hard and when they decide to take a night off. Frustrating.

Already working on the college hoops for tomorrow. NFL picks probably up some time tonight. Good luck everybody.

Don't Try This At Home

In college hoops tonight, going against the public, but the line moves are really scary, so beware, all for 1 unit:

St. Josephs +11 +106

Southern Miss +6 +100

Sacramento State +20.5 +101

Public on the other side of all of these, and looking at the players, these lines are way off, so I don't understand the line moves, especially on the first two, unless there are injuries that aren't being reported. Good luck everybody.

While You Were Sleeping

I asked the question in the picks post last night whether there had a so-called "false move" in the Butler/Bradley game yesterday. The line opened Tuesday night at Pinnacle/CRIS (whichever was out first that night) at Butler -1, then when I woke up Wednesday morning, the line had been pushed up to Butler -2.5, which really stood out to me as I had Bradley handicapped as the better team (this turned out to be incorrect). Later in the day, the line was slammed down to a Pick'em, which made more sense to me based on my evaluation of the teams (again, apparently an incorrect evaluation). But what happened in the overnight hours?

I have heard of false moves before, wherein the professional gamblers or betting syndicates know which side they want to be on when the lines come out, but want to push the line another point or two the other way to gain some extra cushion (apparently happens in horse racing also, as betting was suspended in the Irish Champion Stakes three months ago because of a feared false move). So, they start placing enough bets on the other side to get the line moving that way, and then others who follow line movements ("steam-chasers") join in and the line gets pushed a point or two in the professionals favor. Then, of course, the guys who started this whole thing slam an even larger amount of money on the side they originally wanted but at an even better number now, which increases their chance of covering, obviously. In some rare cases, they could even win on both sides if the game result lands in between the original number and the manufactured number (getting a "middle" or "middling"), but mostly, they are just looking for a little more insurance on the line they wanted originally.

Then, once I started thinking about a potential false move in the Bradley game, I recalled some weird movement in the Drake/Iowa State and Texas/Villanova games on Tuesday (but, the false movers would have lost those also). Of course, I could just be seeing things that aren't there. Like, when you hear weird noises in bed after watching a scary movie, or how a hypochondriac hears a report about a new disease and suddenly starts noticing that he seems to have all of the symptoms. I never really looked into it before, but does anybody out there who knows more about this stuff than me have an idea about how frequently this occurs? And if the answer is even somewhat frequently, does that make it more important to wait longer before putting in your bets in, for fear of reading the line movements incorrectly? An interesting concept, any thoughts appreciated.

Wednesday Baskets

Didn't have a lot of time today, so there are probably good plays out there that I didn't get to look at (Ohio U?), but these are the hoops plays we're on tonight:

College Basketball

Bradley -1 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

If there was a 2-unit play today, this would have been it, and it seems to have all of the pieces in place: lopsided betting, with the line move and better players on the other team, who also gets to play at home against a team that is better known because of past success. Was there a false move on this game in the overnight betting?

San Diego State +6 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

I like what Jordan Hill is doing for Arizona, but SD State has a lot of quality big bodies to throw out there themselves. Additionally, there's a chance that Lorenzo Wade might finally see the court this season, after allegedly stealing a girl's TV in the offseason (idiot).

NBA

Pacers +3 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

76ers +6.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

Bucks +1 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

Just looked at the betting and line movements with no other thinking involved. I think that last part really helps our chances.

Good night, folks.

Tuesday Night Hoops & Pucks

Everything else for Tuesday night. As always, unless otherwise indicated, lines are from Matchbook:

College Basketball

Idaho State +19.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Drake +3.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

Major conference schools (Wisconsin & Iowa State) getting the love from the public and in the lines, but the talent of the players tells a different story.

NBA

Bucks +6 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

The other games I was considering based on the line moves (e.g. Wiz, Hawks, Kings) have some injury concerns involved that could be making the difference. Whether Shaq is officially rested tonight or not doesn't sound like a big deal to me. Isn't he always resting?

NHL

Calgary +136, 0.50 units to win 0.68 units

Los Angeles +130, 0.50 units to win 0.65 units

Better teams getting the underdog prices. Sounds good to me.

Good luck everybody.

Quality Over Quantity, Hoops Pick #4

3-0 on these 2-unit college basketball picks last week. One more for tonight:

San Francisco at Pacific

Betting Numbers

Opening line at Pinnacle: Pacific -8.5
Current line at Pinnacle: Pacific -5

Wagerline: 50% Pacific
Sport Insights: 81% San Francisco (???)

Injuries: None for San Francisco. One bench player (Edwards) out for Pacific, in addition to two players who are suspended for at least the first semester following sexual assault allegations last summer.

Personnel: Superior experience at point guard for San Francisco. The best player on the court by far is forward Dion Lawhorn (21.2 ppg, 7.2 reb/gm) for San Francisco.

Recent Performances: Both teams lost to Cal by 12-13 points. San Francisco suffered a beat-down at the hands of Cal Poly two days after losing to USC by only 5 points, which followed a victory over Colorado State. Pacific has a decent win on their resume on the road at Nevada.

The Verdict

Holy crap, look at that line move. The professionals apparently drilled San Francisco while I was sleeping. I don't trust that Sports Insights number at all (some odd numbers popping up there lately) - is there any reason the public would be favoring unknown San Francisco over unknown Pacific by that margin? Sure, SF's win/loss record looks better, but it still seems way out of whack. Even if Dior Lawhorn and his teammates are like how Charles Barkley described Dwyane Wade and his teammates (Michael Jackson surrounded by a bunch of Tito Jacksons), I'd still take that combo over a team like Pacific comprised of only Marlons and Randys. Not only is Lawhorn the best scorer and rebounder in this game, he's also shooting 50% (12 out of 24) from 3-point range. Three other San Fran starters are averaging at least 10 points per game in addition to Lawhorn, while only one Pacific player (LeDuc at 10.4) can make that claim. Even if the sharp money has sucked a lot of value out of this line, I don't think the points are going to matter tonight.

The Pick: San Francisco +5 +101 (Matchbook), 2 units to win 2.02 units

We should be adding at least one or two more after work tonight (it was a close contest to see which one would get the long write-up treatment), plus NBA/NHL.

Lingering Questions

Not to be confused with the piece I wrote called "Lingerie Questions" for my Victoria's Secret Fashion Show Blog:

- Would Sean Avery have received a shorter or longer suspension if he just called Elisha Cuthbert a whore?

- Who the hell has Florida played this season to make them a favorite to win the national championship? And before you say Alabama, who the hell has Alabama played?

- After Sunday's dropfest, are we really so sure that the Giants are just as good without Plaxico? Really?

- Sticking with the Giants and Plaxico, and putting aside the question of whether he's dumb enough to end up in the same situation, if Eli Manning had accidentally shot himself with a concealed handgun, do you think Mayor Bloomberg would be acting the same way?

- Is it just me, or has there been a lot less talk about a "quarterback controversy" in New England between Brady and Cassel the past week or so?

- If Matt Ryan turns out to be a better rookie QB than Dan Marino, will he try and one-up Marino again by serving a shorter term as team vice-president (two days)?

- Everyone seemed to think it was funny that Kerry Collins cut his nose on the butt of his rifle when it kicked as he successfully shot a deer earlier this season, but if instead of just killing some deer he had captured a couple of deer and trained them to fight each other, wouldn't PETA be making a huge ruckus about that?

- Bill Parcels says that if you have to cook the dinner, you should be allowed to shop for the groceries, but do the Timberwolves really think that the converse is also true? If Kevin McHale returned to your house from the grocery store with rotten vegetables and spoiled meat, would you really want him cooking the dinner?

- How many of you clicked on the link above to see if I really had a Victoria's Secret blog?

- Who couldn't sleep last night and typed out this crap?

Monday Night Hockey and Late Night Hoops

And, yes, at my age, 10 PM on a Monday night qualifies as late night. The picks:

NHL

Islanders +142, 0.5 units to win 0.71 units

Public likes Toronto but line hasn't moved much, if at all. Statistically, they don't look that different to me, and Toronto's goalkeeping is not up to par.

Blues -102, 1.02 unit to win 1 unit

Like I've said before, I don't really know anything about hockey so if somebody important is injured, I don't know about it, but the Blues seem much better than the Predators statistically. If you know about hockey injuries, you shouldn't be getting your picks from this site.

NBA

Clippers +3.5 +107, 1 unit to win 1.07 units

Public loves the Magic, the bookies don't. I'm siding with the bookies. Clips have covered 5 out of the 6 games since Zach Randolph joined the team (small sample size alert!) by just scoring a ton of points and forcing their opponents to keep up with them. With the additions of Randolph and Baron Davis, and the emergence of Thornton and Gordon, they are no defense and all offense (except for the two games per month that Camby is healthy enough to block shots). Can the Magic keep up tonight? The line movement says no.

College Basketball

San Jose State +8.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

A dramatic line move from the opening line of San Diego -11 down to -9, which hopefully hasn't sucked all of the value out of this underdog. It's early in the season, and even though they're doing fine, I expected more out of Pomare and Brandon Johnson this year, and Trumaine Johnson is suspended rather than breaking out. Disappointing. San Jose doesn't have any superstars, but they don't have big holes either, and are pretty good rebounders. Slow and steady gets the cover tonight.

Good luck everybody.

OK, One More

It would have been nice if Bradley could have come up with ONE MORE FREAKING POINT, but I'm not gonna let the Man get me down like that. One more college basketball game for tonight:

Cal State Northridge +21 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

82% of wagerline and 90% according to Sports Insights on UCLA tonight, but yet the line has fallen from UCLA -22 to -21? Kevin Love isn't walking through that door! Good night everybody.

Sunday Afternoon Hoops

The NFL picks were posted on Friday. After a winning day in basketball yesterday, we're pressing our luck (No Whammies! Stop!) by playing a few more today:

NBA

Knicks +6.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Heavy public support for the Not-So-Bad Boys, who have been playing some pretty uninspired ball since the Chauncey for Iverson swap, but the line is going the other way. Is Chris Duhon really averaging double-digit scoring and more than 8 assists per game? When will Chris Rock be issuing his apology?

College Basketball

Iona +4 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units

The Gaels screwed me on Friday night, so shame on me if they fool me twice. Still, if they're going to give me points with the better team, I'm gonna fall for it every time. I'm like Evander Holyfield and the bookies are like slutty women promising me that they're on the pill.

Bradley +15 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit

The Spartans' big advantage in this matchup would be their bulk up front, but with Goran Suton sitting this one out, that edge is diminished. Michigan State still wins on the back of Raymar Morgan, but not by this much. At some point, even Dick Vitale is going to have to admit that the Spartans just aren't very good this year.

Back later if we see anything else we like.

Saturday Night In The Association

That Cornell game was a bastard. Up 12 at halftime, and then outscored by 29 points in the second half. Brutal. In the crapshoot that is the NBA:

Thunder +11 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Clippers +1.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

Kings +5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Just going with the line moves tonight. I've pretty much given up on trying to guess which players are going to try hard on a given night and which ones aren't. No time for hockey. Good night everybody.

The Old College Try

Well, at least the Army kids didn't get my hopes up or anything. The rest from the amateur ranks:

College Football

South Florida +7 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

West Virginia's one-dimensional rushing offense vs. USF's #8 rushing defense, which only allowed 100-yard performances by opposing running backs twice.

College Basketball

Delaware +9 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Blue Hens have the better backcourt in this game tipping off very soon (sorry).

Utah State +6 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

The flipside to the previous pick, here Utah State's frontcourt advantage keeps it close.

Loyola-Chicago +10 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Pretty even, betting/line move on our side, we'll take the 10 points.

Western Carolina +10.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Another matchup that looks even. WCU big men make the difference tonight.

Good luck everybody. Back with any NBA picks later.

Quality Over Quantity, College Football Edition

Only one game for the afternoon. From the American classic military brawl:

Navy at Army

Betting Numbers

Opening line at Pinnacle: Navy -10.5
Current line at Pinnacle: Navy -10.5

Wagerline: 72% Navy
Sports Insights: 80% Navy

Statistics

Passing offense:

Army: 46 yards per game
Navy: 64 yards per game

Rushing offense:

Army: 254 yards per game
Navy: 292 yards per game

Defenses: virtually even (Navy allows 359 ypg, Army allows 332)

Injuries

Navy QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada is day-to-day with a hamstring injury, and has missed several games this year.

The Verdict

Heavy public support for Navy but the line has held firm. From the statistics, these look like basically the same team: great rushing offense, no passing, decent rushing defense on both sides. Navy has better win/loss results, which may explain the line and public sentiment, but these teams aren't that different, especially with Navy's veteran option quarterback (I'm not going to try and spell it again) either out or playing on a bad hamstring, which is significant for a QB who runs every play and never throws.

The Pick: Army +11 -110 (WSEX), 2.2 units to win 2 units

And in college hoops, only 2 picks between now and the games that tipoff at 4 PM:

Cornell +11.5 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Backcourt injuries make this one a little risky for Big Red, but they're still not double-digits worse that Minnesota.

UNC-Charlotte +7 -107 (Matchbook), 1.07 units to win 1 unit

Backcourt edge for SIU, frontcourt advantage for Charlotte. Betting numbers (67% SIU at wagerline, line retreated to -6.5 at many books) say it will be close.

Back later with evening/night picks.

NFL Week 14: Wherein we play our first consensus pick

We're keeping an eye on both suspension-related games, and might add New Orleans and Detroit (playing Minnesota) later, but for now this is all we've got:

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 +102 (Matchbook): 1 unit to win 1.02 units.

And there it is! Our first consensus pick of the year, if 51% can be considered a consensus. A truly momentous occasion.

So why do we do it? Well, it appears that the public thinks these are evenly matched teams, with the crowd split almost 50/50 once the traditional 3 points for home field is built in. We disagree. Pittsburgh is way, way ahead of Dallas in the DVOA numbers (5th overall in the league to 17th overall). That's way too much of a disparity to be accounted for by Romo's four-game absence alone. There's something else at work here. The Cowboys are playing better football, but the public and the talking heads are getting way ahead of themselves in talking about this team as a contender. All they've done is beat a Redskins team (one that we've learned since then is far from stellar) in an ugly game and then held court with home wins against two of the league's bottomfeeders. Meanwhile, the Steelers have impressed almost every week. The injury to Marion Barber, with Felix Jones already shelved for the season, seals the deal.

St. Louis Rams + 14 + 102 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.02 units.

Since their bye and the end of the Linehan era in late September, there have been two Rams teams: One that has Steven Jackson in the lineup, and one that doesn't. The former covers spreads, the latter doesn't (with the singular exception of a cover of a nine-point spread with a seven-point loss). Seriously, go look it up. I'll wait.

You back? Crazy, right? I know. No need to thank me so profusely for pointing it out. Really. I'm blushing. Anyway, I usually downplay the impact of running backs, but Jackson is a beast, and his pass-catching ability changes their offense from a horrible one to one that at least can keep a defense on its toes. I think this team can stay within two touchdowns of the Cardinals. 14 is a lot of points. And unlike the Steelers play above, we're fading the public here. Wagerline says 63% on the Cards.

Friday Hoops - Nothing To Write Home About

I don't see anything for tonight that looks like a slam dunk, but somehow still played 5 games. So much for quality over quantity (maybe we'll get back to that mindset tomorrow):

College Basketball

Iona -3 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

NBA

Wizards +11.5 +109, 1 unit to win 1.09 units

Pacers +11 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

Warriors +8.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

Bobcats +4.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

Good luck everybody. Tons of work to do before tomorrow.